Module 13: The $24B Solution — Economic Model

1. Problem framing

Property tax abolition (per 2026 ballot and policy debate in the master) removes a stable local revenue anchor. The Ohio Tax Transparency Initiative posits that ~$24 billion must be replaced or services cut. This module does not claim precision audited forecasts—it structures how captured leakage reduces the rate pressure on any replacement tax.

2. Leakage categories that move the needle

3. Offsetting abolition without a ~15% sales tax rate

Illustrative logic (scenario-based, not a revenue official estimate):

• Let S = sales + use tax base broadening and compliance gain expressed in annual \$.
• Let R = required replacement ≈ $24B.
• Average combined rate needed on base B roughly scales as R/B. Increasing effective base (fewer exemptions, fewer misclassifications) raises B and therefore reduces the marginal rate needed to hit R.

Therefore: Capturing construction and services leakage materially raises B — it is explicitly the policy bridge between “abolish property tax” and “don't triple the sales tax rate”—rate nightmares (e.g. mid-teens combined) become less necessary if the base is honest.

4. Transparency disclaimer

All \$ figures in public advocacy (Module 14) should cite assumptions (elasticity, Federal policy, local school guarantees). This repository favors structuring logic over false precision.

Outcomes (to expand)

• [ ] Spreadsheet model: inputs → replacement rate
• [ ] Sensitivity on fixture capture %
• [ ] Alignment with state forecast documents when published